Most market commentary
can never be wrong.
Macro and markets for institutional investors. I write down what would prove me wrong – before the market does.
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Free. A handful of essays a month – each with a thesis you can hold me to.
Recent essays
The latest from the newsletter.
Who's Buying America
The world still buys American debt – just not the way it used to.
AI’s Real Bottleneck Isn’t the Chips
Investment Musings – 18 July 2026
The Debt Outlives the Machine
There is nothing wrong with borrowing to build. There might be with thirty-year money buying three-year silicon. The sequel to Below Cost – and it has a kill…
The Daily
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Sample · June 2026
The podcast
Markets, capital, and the thinking behind the calls.
Worth reading
Articles and reading I think are worth your time.
The future of AI may be small, cheap and unprofitable
A study argues small models on everyday hardware could handle most of what large models do today – leaving the future of AI cheaper, and far less profitable, than investors expect.
ECB may hike rates again despite weak growth – BofA
Bank of America thinks the ECB could raise rates further even with subdued eurozone growth, as policymakers stay focused on upside inflation risks.
SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic: The S&P 500 Inclusion Question and Investment Consequences!
Damodaran weighs whether three AI-era giants belong in the S&P 500, and what passive index inclusion would mean for their valuations and for investors.
Worth watching
A couple of videos worth your time.
The Comedy of Capital
Master Negotiator – book summary: Getting to Yes, Difficult Conversations, Never Split the Difference
About
Nuno Amado Mendes, CFA
Head of Corporate Finance at Feel Group and former CIO of a London single-family office. Background in derivatives, structured products, trading and research across Santander, Novo Banco and BES. Investment Musings is where I write down what I think – and what would prove me wrong.
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Elsewhere
- Allegedly Better – A looser podcast on markets, business, and the ideas in between.
- Em português Juro Composto – resumos de livros e notas de investimento, em português.